Trader Talk: The Possible Return of UFC’s Conor McGregor

A quick scan of the Conor McGregor UFC headlines offers both fans and bettors some tasty nuggets:

Conor McGregor in 2015. Sportsbook traders, much like fans of MMA, are wondering if talk of a McGregor comeback is legit. Sportsbooks certainly hope for that, according to a few traders. Image/Joe Faraoni ESPN Images

In an interview this week, next year: “I’d like to square it away with Michael Chandler. We’ve had our beef. It’s not settled .

McGregor says a few names are being discussed, including Nate Diaz and Dustin Poirier.

The dust isn’t settled with Dustin, it’s 1-1-1 [record between the two fighters]. The Diaz one is also 1-1. Two big blockbuster matches, and I am excited to get them locked in.”

Almost Four Years Since Last McGregor Bout

McGregor s last UFC fight took place on June 10, 2021, when he suffered a broken leg in a loss to Dustin Poirier.

White has already said McGregor won’t fight in 2024. The fighter he was supposed to be going up against, lightweight Michael Chandler (23-8-0), has grown tired of waiting and will jump back into the Octagon on November 16 at UFC 309 in Madison Square Garden in New York, facing off against Charles Oliveira (34-10-0).

Betting on UFC Grew as McGregor s Popularity Soared

Since joining the UFC in 2013 McGregor posted a , before losing to Diaz by submission. His presence in the UFC galvanized the betting product over the years, according to trader Mark Collier. The sport was nicely building popularity in the years before McGregor’s rise, but was “streets behind” more conventional boxing.

Numbers for the larger mixed martial arts cards were one-tenth of a showcase boxing event,” said Collier. “The only advantageous factor for UFC were that bouts were more structured (off times) and focused on the entire card, not just one fight, which is common in boxing.”

The more popular UFC fighters when McGregor came on the scene included Jon Jones and Ronda Rousey. Jones was too inactive, and Rousey finished too quickly, he added.

Betting on McGregor Started to Fade in 2020

“I personally remember McGregor’s 67-second humbling of Marcus Brimage in Sweden [April 2013] being a huge surge in turnover with punters ignoring the 4/7 bout price and just piling on the 6/4 Conor KO/TKO/DQ,” Collier recalled. “This was not to mention, a similar influx on McGregor in Round 1, which absolutely demonstrated both his impact and his adaptability to UFC from the lesser UK franchise Cage Warriors.

From the time he joined the promotion, It was a solid two-year period of Conor picking off the featherweight division with the only favorable moment for the bookie being when he appeared to break his wrist against Max Holloway, Collier said.

Now, the focus is on when and if McGregor comes back, and no one is following closer than sportsbook traders.

“With the exception of maybe the Dennis Siver bout in Boston (January 2015, where McGregor was 1/6), I can’t recall the bout betting ever being massively in favor of McGregor even with bouts mainly being located in Ireland,” Collier said. “He was always installed as a marginal favorite (from 4/9 – 8/11 marks), so it always felt like the Vegas line respected the Notorious hype train, but the general opinion was that the likes of Poirier, Holloway, and Chad Mendes would expose his less-than-perfect ground game.”

Legacy is in Question

The McGregor hype reached its saturation point during the Floyd Mayweather boxing exhibition fight in 2017 and the Khabib Nurmagomedov UFC fight (loss by submission) in October 2018. The betting momentum had started to turn when McGregor lost to Diaz by submission in March 2016 (McGregor then would defeat Diaz by majority decision in August 2016).